Time Machine: 'A New Idea for Average Dice'

Following is an article by wargamer Carl Spratner titled "A New Idea for Average Dice" that appeared in the January 1972 issue of "The Wargamer," a 20-page black-and-white publication with a cardstock cover published in Wheaton, Maryland. I am partial to vintage articles on dice systems and probability, all the more so because they represent stopgap measures that were rendered moot by the introduction and proliferation of polyhedral dice — but which many old-school wargamers seem to have resisted adopting. Note that his example implicitly refers to the Napoleonic Wars, upon which the wargamers of that era were especially fixated. As with many such articles from this era, however, it does not actually mention any particular rules systems it is trying to improve. 

Following is an article by wargamer Carl Spratner titled "A New Idea for Average Dice" that appeared in the January 1972 issue of "The Wargamer," a 20-page black-and-white publication with a cardstock cover published in Wheaton, Maryland. I am partial to vintage articles on dice systems and probability, all the more so because they represent stopgap measures that were rendered moot by the introduction and proliferation of polyhedral dice — but which many old-school wargamers seem to have resisted adopting. Note that his example implicitly refers to the Napoleonic Wars, upon which the wargamers of that era were especially fixated. As with many such articles from this era, however, it does not actually mention any particular rules systems it is trying to improve.

There probably isn't so much as one wargamer alive who hasn't more than once cursed the luck of the infernal die.

You must know the situation well. Maybe it was a battalion of elite light infantry you had holding that vital hill against the advance of a menacing French column. A turn or two of devastating firepower and by the time the column was ready to strike your position it didn't look very menacing anymore. In fact, your lights had a 2-1 combat advantage in manpower and position.

You and your opponent rolled. And, of course, you rolled the lowest possible number while he rolled the highest. And, your elite battalion was rolled right off the hill as a result.

That's a problem with using standard dice to resolve wargame melees. Because it is numbers 1 to 6 in sequence, a standard die allows a force to win even when outnumbered by better than 5-1. Only odds of at least a fraction better than 6-to-1 ensure victory, And though the percentages may be riding with the stronger force, unrealistic upsets occur.

British wargamers went a long way toward solving that problem with the invention of the average die, numbered 2-3-3-4-4-5. Lacking 1s and 6s, it can't jolt you with unpleasant surprises because the odds spread is a more reasonable 2½-to-1.

But the British average die comes with a built-in flaw that isn't at all obvious until you've used it in three or four tabletop duels. Because the odds spread is so narrow, though quite realistic by Napoleonic standards, the average die tends to convert wargames into slugging matches and unless absolutely desperate, a wargamer won't risk anything but a safe attack. This tends to develop conservative play, with little room for daring.

Between the standard and average die there is a compromise — a new average die you can make with no trouble. All it does is raise by 1 every number on the standard die. Its range is 2 to 7. There is no number 1.

What this gives you is a die with an odds range of 3½-to-1. It isn't as wide open as a standard die, thus it won't stun you with unrealistic upsets. On the other hand, it isn't as restrictive as the British average die and won't often stifle initiative. But it gives the underdog a fair chance.

This new average die is especially suited for Modern Period wargames because of the accepted theory that odds of 3-1 ensure victory. This die may not guarantee victory if you have a 3-to-1 edge over your opponent but it comes pretty close to doing so.

Making one is simpler than painting a 30mm bayonet. All you have to do is add 6 pips to the side with the 1, turning it into a 7. Or, if you prefer, just call the 1 a 7 whenever it comes up.